On October 2nd, 2018, in his excellent post, Moneyball Revisited, Greg Stewart noted; “Where can we go from here? What will fuel the rocket?” Not long after, during what turned out to be a very difficult December 2018, U.S. stocks dropped almost 9%. Needless to say, it was nice to have been somewhat prepared. For those who were not, well, a lot of investors were pretty shaken.
Those of our clients with whom I was able to either meet or speak directly may recall me sharing Greg’s forecast (more on this word later) that a follow-up rally was likely, with stocks projected to be up more than 8% by early March of 2019.
We are now in the first week of March and U.S. stocks are up better than 10%. A solid series of calls by our CIO. This would also be a good place to add that Greg’s data at the time showed that this rally would likely not be long lived.
Please note that I use the word “forecast” for lack of anything more fitting, and that this update is not meant to draw attention to any kind of short term thinking. It is just an update, pain and simple.
My very best,