By: Greg Stewart | March 6, 2026
The closing bell today felt like a “thud”. With major indexes sliding significantly and the headlines dominated by the week’s military escalation, it is easy to feel like the tide is pulling everything out to sea. However, within our overall strategy (Internally referred to as Mosaic Alpha) we don’t just watch the waves; we measure the undercurrents.
To better understand where we are, we must look at the collision of forces that defined this historic week.
The Noise vs. The Signal
Since the initial strikes on Iran began, the “Noise” has been deafening. The actual signal, however, can be found in history. Geopolitical shocks of this magnitude are almost always sharp, high-velocity, and temporary. Historically, the performance of the S&P 500 (Post-Geopolitical Shock) is positive one year after the correction in 75% of the cases.
Why? Because even though the headlines focus on destruction, the undercurrent is adaptation. Humans find new trade routes, companies find new efficiencies, and the engine of global earnings eventually overcomes the friction of war.
The Three Tides
This week, we witnessed three distinct undercurrents hitting each other at once:
∙ The Energy Tide: This was the week’s defining force. Brent Crude didn’t just rise; it surged over 30% in five trading days, eventually even crossing the $100 mark. In the short term, this acts as a massive “tax” on every consumer and a margin-squeeze for every business.
∙ The Labor Tide: Today’s Jobs Report showed a contraction of 92,000 jobs, a clear sign that high interest rates are finally cooling the engine. Historically, this is the
precursor to a pivot toward lower rates—a long-term tailwind for stocks.
∙ The Productivity Tide: This is the most powerful force in our Mosaic Alpha strategy. Despite the energy spike, the data shows that productivity is surging. This is the “AI dividend” —companies are doing more with less, which is the only true shield against a “Stagflationary” environment.
The most important takeaway from a week that ends in a thud is the fact that fear is a “discount code”. When the market panics, it stops being surgical. It sells what it can; to cover what it must; This creates a rare window where Wide Moat titans—companies with unshakeable brand loyalty and essential products—are sold off tight alongside the most fragile startups. We recognize that while the price of a stock might drop in a week of war, the value of its Moat (its competitive advantage) often remains untouched.
The Mosaic Alpha Verdict
We don’t panic trade the news; we take advantage of the fear to pick up ownership in great companies currently on sale.
We maintain a “Fortress” structure—heavy on Gold to buffer the 30% energy shock, alongside a sizeable Cash reserve, and defensive anchors like Hershey (HSY) and
Mondelez (MDLZ) — we navigate the volatility without retreating.
We recognize that it is impossible to pick which direction the markets will move from day to day. However, history shows that recoveries are often swift and violent. Most investors who panic and exit the market will simply not be able to get back in quickly enough to capture the rebound.
We choose to Invest rather than Trade. Historically, energy spikes of this magnitude tend to reach a peak within 2 to 3 weeks before normalizing. As this cycle plays out, we are standing ready with our Cash reserves to buy the high-quality tech and infrastructure leaders that were thrown out with the bathwater, during the panic.
