If you blinked, you might have missed it.
April 2025 delivered one of the most remarkable financial market turnarounds in recent history. After a sharp sell-off driven by fears of new tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, global markets staged a recovery so lightning quick it set records. In just 89 days, the S&P 500 not only clawed back massive losses, it reached new all-time highs. A rebound of this magnitude was virtually historic.
April 9th: The Day No One Predicted
One day in particular, April 9th, stands out because of the whiplash it delivered in the markets. That morning, the administration announced an extension of tariffs, the very issue that had been reverberating through the news and rattling markets for weeks. But instead of selling off further, markets rallied…hard.
The S&P 500 surged roughly 9% in a single day, one of its top three daily gains since 1957. The NASDAQ jumped nearly 12%, the second-largest one-day positive move in its history. The real kicker is that this came immediately after a Friday when the market dropped nearly 6%!
For many investors, this was a classic emotional trap. Faced with a 15% plus sell-off going into April 9th, and fueled by a serious dose of headline hype, the instinct was to bail out, protect capital, and “wait for clarity.”
But clarity never comes when you want it – Instead, the market reversed course, leaving many investors on the sidelines as the rebound took hold.
Missing the Best Days Costs You More Than You Think
If you missed that one-day bounce on April 9, your return this year probably looks dramatically different than the market as a whole. In fact, if you exited the market during the downturn and failed to get back in before April 9th, you could still be sitting on significant losses for the year.
This pattern isn’t new. In 2024, the S&P 500 finished the year up over 23%, but the difference between having a great 2024 and a mediocre one came down to a handful of key days.
Little more than 10% of the trading days in 2024 were positive enough to really tip the scales in your favor, and as is often the case, that made all the difference.
So far In 2025, the story is eerily similar. The S&P 500 is up overall at the time of this writing, but only a handful of positive trading days have created that result.
Trying to sidestep volatility by media-driven “timing” of the market usually means missing the few pivotal days, and those are the very days that drive long-term returns.
The Emotional Cost of Volatility
Volatility is uncomfortable, and watching your portfolio swing wildly from week to week is exhausting.
It’s easy to say, “I can handle a 20% downturn,” while you are filling out your investor risk questionnaire, but when yesterday’s $1 million is suddenly $800,000, it gets real, and can test your resolve.
It turns out there is a big difference between a theoretical -20% and a real one. This can create a strong desire to pull out, locking in losses and missing the recovery. Reacting to volatility on a day to day basis, while being yanked back and forth by what is being reported in the daily news, is not a sustainable investment plan.
It’s not even a plan at all.
There’s No Magic Wand, Just Discipline
To my knowledge, no one on the Forbes list of the wealthiest people in the world day-traded their way to billions. They built companies, invented products, or revolutionized industries. They didn’t pick the right crypto coin or hot stock. They created lasting value.
Creating lasting wealth through investing is about sustainable – sometimes boring – growth, not lucky bets. Yes, people will have one-off wins, buying NVIDIA at the right time, jumping into Bitcoin early, but how many of them can repeat it? How many of them kept the gains?
Even superstar fund managers rarely remain headlining superstars for long. Most have had spectacular runs for a period, but markets change – and so does luck. The key to investing success isn’t in finding magic trades. It’s in designing a long-term strategy that works.
What the Hype May Not be Telling You Right Now
Today’s market isn’t cheap like it was in 2009 after the global financial crisis. In many ways, it resembles the mid-1990s tech boom, where transformational innovations (this time in AI, not just the internet) are driving valuations higher. The companies at the forefront of generative AI are mostly American and they make up an increasingly large share of global market indices.
Despite concerns about tariffs, recession, and layoffs, the U.S. economy has proven resilient. Inflation has not spiraled out of control. Consumer spending continues. Even the U.S. Treasury surprised markets recently by posting a rare monthly budget surplus, thanks in part to tariff revenues.
Meanwhile, companies are adding back earnings guidance. Airlines, for example, are saying the skies are clearing, not darkening. AI is helping businesses control costs and avoid mass layoffs. The world outside the U.S. saw some mean reversion in early 2025 after lagging in 2024, but the biggest gains are still coming from U.S. companies innovating at the frontiers of technology.
What’s the Takeaway?
The best lesson from the wild second quarter that just ended is twofold: Don’t try to outsmart the market, and it’s OK to disconnect a bit (or a lot) from the news of the day.
There is no secret product, no guaranteed high-yield stock, no crypto token that will bypass the realities of risk and reward. The right strategy comes down to knowing how much risk you can take without self-destructing when markets get rough.
That means finding your balance between growth and safety. It means accepting that volatility is the price of admission for long-term wealth building and preservation. Most importantly, it means designing a plan you can stick with—not just when things are easy, but when the headlines are screaming that everyone should panic.
At the end of the day, real wealth isn’t just about having more money. It’s about not having to worry about money. That lack of worry doesn’t come from luck. It comes from discipline.
If you’re feeling anxious about market swings or wondering whether your current investment strategy matches your goals, now might be a good time to step back and ask: What’s my plan?
As April 2025 reminded us, the next big move is always just around the corner. We haven’t yet figured out how to put a bell on that cat, so no one knows exactly when it is coming.
At Topturn Capital, we continue to take a disciplined approach, seeking opportunities in unexpected places. If you are questioning whether you are prepared for those big moves, let’s have a conversation.
